Probabilistic optimal power flow to determine the Locational marginal price considering wind generation

Abstract- The optimal power flow (OPF) is one of the key tools in the planning and operation of power systems. However, due to extensive using of the renewable energy sources especially, wind generation in the electric energy generation, application of this tool encounter with a major challenge. Uncertainty in the available wind generation level rooted in forecast error necessitates the change in the modeling and solution method of OPF problem. In this research work, Locational Marginal Price (MCP) as an important parameter in the market-based power systems is modeled in the context of optimal power flow problem and its probability density function is computed using a new point estimation method. The proposed point estimation method approximate the desired probability characteristics using their a few moments. Apart from that the proposed method guarantees the feasibility of the obtained estimated points, as the significant advantage, it notably outperforms the conventional point estimation methods in the required time and approximation accuracy aspects. Application of the obtained results is discussed from practical point of view as well. Effectiveness of the proposed method is examined on the 9-bus and 24-bus IEEE test systems together with realistic 118-bus power system and its advantages in accuracy and quickness with respect to the other methods are shown.