Prediction of the Potential Distribution and Conservation Strategies of the Endangered Plant Tapiscia sinensis

Tapiscia sinensis Oliv. (T. sinensis), known as the Yingjiao tree, belongs to the Staphyleaceae family. It is a deciduous tree species endemic to China and represents an ancient species from the Tertiary glacial relics, possessing significant ecological and economic value. This study is based on 154 effective distribution points of T. sinensis in China and 12 environmental factors. Using integrated modeling and ArcGIS software (v10.8), the potential geographic distribution of T. sinensis under climate change was predicted to assess its future impact on distribution and ecological niche. Additionally, on-site surveys were conducted to compare the characteristics of T. sinensis forest communities across different habitability zones. The study also proposes conservation strategies based on the influence of climate change on the distribution of T. sinensis and the characteristics of its forest communities. The results indicate that (1) the current highly suitable areas for T. sinensis are primarily located in the municipal regions where Chongqing, Hubei, Hunan, and Guizhou provinces meet, covering an area of 20.44 × 104 km2. (2) In three suitable community categories, T. sinensis is consistently a subdominant species, with the community in moderately suitable areas being the most diverse and exhibiting higher stability and evenness. (3) Under future climate change scenarios, the potential distribution area for T. sinensis will gradually decrease with rising temperatures. It will shift toward northern higher latitude regions, with the degree of ecological niche migration also increasing. (4) Conservation measures for T. sinensis primarily involve in situ and ex situ protection approaches. These results provide a theoretical basis for the scientific management and resource conservation of T. sinensis.