The benefit of foresight? An ethical evaluation of predictive testing for psychosis in clinical practice

•Individualized psychosis risk predictions could feasibly become a clinical reality.•Neuroimaging biomarkers play a central role in many risk prediction models.•Ethically relevant benefits include early intervention and risk factor avoidance.•Ethically relevant risks include stigma, unequal access, and machine learning bias.•Ethical analysis should proceed alongside scientific advances in psychosis prediction. Risk prediction for psychosis has advanced to the stage at which it could feasibly become a clinical reality. Neuroimaging biomarkers play a central role in many risk prediction models. Using such models to predict the likelihood of transition to psychosis in individuals known to be at high risk has the potential to meaningfully improve outcomes, principally through facilitating early intervention. However, this compelling benefit must be evaluated in light of the broader ethical ramifications of this prospective development in clinical practice. This paper advances ethical discussion in the field in two ways: firstly, through in-depth consideration of the distinctive implications of the clinical application of predictive tools; and, secondly, by evaluating the manner in which newer predictive models incorporating neuroimaging alter the ethical landscape. We outline the current state of the science of predictive testing for psychosis, with a particular focus on emerging neuroimaging biomarkers. We then proceed to ethical analysis employing the four principles of biomedical ethics as a conceptual framework. We conclude with a call for scientific advancement to proceed in tandem with ethical consideration, informed by empirical study of the views of high risk individuals and their families. This collaborative approach will help ensure that predictive testing progresses in an ethically acceptable manner that minimizes potential adverse effects and maximizes meaningful benefits for those at high risk of psychosis.