Assessing Thermospheric Neutral Density Models Using GEODYN's Precision Orbit Determination

This study focuses on utilizing the increasing availability of satellite trajectory data from global navigation satellite system‐enabled low‐Earth orbiting satellites and their precision orbit determination (POD) solutions to expand and refine thermospheric model validation capabilities. The research introduces an updated interface for the GEODYN‐II POD software, leveraging high‐precision space geodetic POD to investigate satellite drag and assess density models. This work presents a case study to examine five models (NRLMSIS2.0, DTM2020, JB2008, TIEGCM, and CTIPe) using precise science orbit (PSO) solutions of the Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite‐2 (ICESat‐2). The PSO is used as tracking measurements to construct orbit fits, enabling an evaluation according to each model's ability to redetermine the orbit. Relative in‐track deviations, quantified by in‐track residuals and root‐mean‐square errors (RMSe), are treated as proxies for model densities that differ from an unknown true density. The study investigates assumptions related to the treatment of the drag coefficient and leverages them to eliminate bias and effectively scale model density. Assessment results and interpretations are dictated by the timescale at which the scaling occurs. DTM2020 requires the least scaling (∼−7%) to achieve orbit fits closely matching the PSO within an in‐track RMSe of 7 m when scaled over 2 weeks and 2 m when scaled daily. The remaining models require substantial scaling of the mean density offset (∼30 − 75%) to construct orbit fits that meet the aforementioned RMSe criteria. All models exhibit slight over or under‐sensitivity to geomagnetic activity according to trends in their 24‐hr scaling factors. Plain Language Summary This research aims to make use of data from well‐tracked satellites that orbit close to Earth where they still interact with the atmosphere via satellite drag. The goal is to use high‐quality orbit solutions of satellites to provide additional means of testing density models of the Earth's upper atmosphere. By updating a precise orbit software tool called GEODYN‐II, we demonstrate how a satellite's orbit is affected by the drag forces from different density models of the upper atmosphere, and how those orbits can be used to assess the accuracy of the models. Each density model produces an orbit fit that deviates from the precise orbit of a satellite, and these deviations are used as proxies for model error relative to the unknown true density.