The effect of sustainable mobility transition policies on cumulative urban transport emissions and energy demand

The growing urban transport sector presents towns and cities with an escalating challenge in the reduction of their greenhouse gas emissions. Here we assess the effectiveness of several widely considered policy options (electrification, light-weighting, retrofitting, scrapping, regulated manufacturing standards and modal shift) in achieving the transition to sustainable urban mobility in terms of their emissions and energy impact until 2050. Our analysis investigates the severity of actions needed to comply with Paris compliant regional sub-sectoral carbon budgets. We introduce the Urban Transport Policy Model (UTPM) for passenger car fleets and use London as an urban case study to show that current policies are insufficient to meet climate targets. We conclude that, as well as implementation of emission-reducing changes in vehicle design, a rapid and large-scale reduction in car use is necessary to meet stringent carbon budgets and avoid high energy demand. Yet, without increased consensus in sub-national and sectoral carbon budgets, the scale of reduction necessary stays uncertain. Nevertheless, it is certain we need to act urgently and intensively across all policy mechanisms available as well as developing new policy options. A rapid and large-scale reduction in car use, within a well-designed policy mix, is necessary to achieve short-term emission targets and reduce energy demand. Here, the authors introduce the Urban Transport Policy Model and demonstrate, using London as a case study, that current policies will not meet climate targets.