A study on the impact of rural finance on high-quality agricultural development in China—a test based on intermediation, threshold and spillover effects

Achieving high-quality agricultural development (HQAD) has become an urgent and important task for many countries. This paper selects panel data of 30 provinces in China from 2005 to 2019 and uses the mediation model, panel threshold model and spatial econometric model to explore the impact of rural finance (RF) on high-quality agricultural development. The study found that: 1) RF can effectively promote high-quality agricultural development, and the conclusions still hold after multiple robustness tests; 2) The results of heterogeneity analysis show that RF has a significant role in promoting high-quality agricultural development during the period of high economic growth, and the effect is not obvious during the period of slow economic growth. In addition, under the conditions of heterogeneity of functional grain production areas and heterogeneity of financial literacy, RF has a significant positive effect on high-quality agricultural development, and the intensity of the effect is shown as main grain production areas > main grain marketing areas > balanced grain production and marketing areas, and higher financial literacy areas > lower financial literacy areas; 3) Farmland scale management plays a partially mediating role in the process of RF influencing high-quality agricultural development, and the share of the mediating effect in the total effect is 24.64%; 4) There is a single threshold effect of rural finance efficiency (RFE) and the share of agricultural technicians in the impact of RF on high-quality agricultural development, and the threshold values are 0.940 and 0.448, respectively. In the process of crossing the threshold, the enhancement effect of RF on high-quality agricultural development shows a marginal incremental feature; 5) There is a significant spatial correlation between China’s inter-provincial agricultural high-quality development, and RF in the region can act on the agricultural high-quality development of neighboring regions through spatial spillover effects. Our study enriches the existing literature and provides empirical evidence and policy insights on how RF in China contributes to high-quality agricultural development.