Construction of metal interpretable scoring system and identification of tungsten as a novel risk factor in COPD

Numerous studies have highlighted the correlation between metal intake and deteriorated pulmonary function, emphasizing its pivotal role in the progression of Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD). However, the efficacy of traditional models is often compromised due to overfitting and high bias in datasets with low-level exposure, rendering them ineffective in delineating the contemporary risk trends associated with pulmonary diseases. To address these limitations, we embarked on developing advanced, interpretable models, crucial for elucidating the intricate mechanisms of metal toxicity and enriching the domain knowledge embedded in toxicity models. In this endeavor, we scrutinized extensive, long-term metal exposure datasets from NHANES to explore the interplay between metal and pulmonary functionality. Employing a variety of machine-learning approaches, we opted for the “Mixer of Experts” model for its proficiency in identifying a myriad of toxicological trends and sensitivities. We conceptualized and illustrated the TSAP (Toxicity Score at Population-level), a metal interpretable scoring system offering performance nearly equivalent to the amalgamation of standard interpretable methods addressing the “black box” conundrum. This streamlined, bifurcated procedural analysis proved instrumental in discerning established risk factors, thereby uncovering Tungsten as a novel contributor to COPD risk. TSAP achieved satisfied performance with transparent interpretability, suggesting tungsten intake need further action for COPD prevention. [Display omitted] •Our study first linked tungsten exposure at the population level with pulmonary dysfunction contributes to Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease.•We evaluated the participant's multi-pulmonary index, including F257, FEV1, and FVC.•Specific urinary tungsten level is the priority risk factor correlated with pulmonary dysfunction in participants.