Establishment of a preliminary FRAX®-based intervention threshold for rheumatoid arthritis–associated fragility fracture: a 3-year longitudinal, observational, cohort study

Background: To establish a FRAX®-based prediction model for rheumatoid arthritis (RA)-associated fragility fracture. Methods: This study is a longitudinal, real-world, registry cohort study. Patients with RA were registered to start in September 2014. The baseline demographics, bone mineral density (BMD), and risk factors of osteoporosis or fragility fracture were recorded. Subsequent fragility fractures during the 3-year observation period were also recorded. We developed a fixed intervention threshold (FITD) to identify fractures by choosing an optimal cut-off point on the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and FRAX®. Several models for intervention thresholds (IT), including fixed intervention threshold (Taiwan) (FITT), age-specific individual intervention threshold (IIT), and hybrid intervention threshold (HIT), were compared to evaluate which IT model will have better discriminative power. Results: As of December 2020, a total of 493 RA participants have completed the 3-year observation study. The mean age of the participants was 59.3 ± 8.7, and 116 (23.5%) new fragility fractures were observed during the study period. In terms of pairwise comparisons of area under the curve (n, 95% confidence interval) in the ROC curve, the FITD (0.669, 0.610–0.727, p