ESTIMATION OF PREDICTION EFFICIENCY OF SEISMIC REGIME PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS

ESTIMATION OF PREDICTION EFFICIENCY OF SEISMIC REGIME PROBABILISTIC MODEL PARAMETERS

On the basis of theoretical-probabilistic approach to the Kamchatka earthquakes catalog the subset of random events was specified and their probabilities were calculated. The received probabilities of random events considered as predictors of strong earthquakes with energy class KS 14. Their effecti...

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Veröffentlicht in:Vestnik KRAUNT͡S︡: fiziko-matematicheskie nauki 2016-11 (1(17)), p.54-67
Hauptverfasser: Bogdanov V.V., Pavlov A.V.
Format: Artikel
Sprache:eng
Schlagworte:
probability
seismicity
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Zusammenfassung:On the basis of theoretical-probabilistic approach to the Kamchatka earthquakes catalog the subset of random events was specified and their probabilities were calculated. The received probabilities of random events considered as predictors of strong earthquakes with energy class KS 14. Their effectiveness V, reliability R and prediction efficiency (informative) J were calculated for periods of seismic activity and seismic calm.
ISSN:2079-6641
2079-665X
DOI:10.18454/2079-6641-2017-17-1-54-67