Development and Validation of a Risk Prediction Model for NAFLD: A Study Based on a Physical Examination Population

To construct and validate a precise and personalized predictive model for non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) to enhance NAFLD screening and healthcare administration. A total of 730 participants' clinical information and outcome measurements were gathered and randomly divided into training and validation sets in a ratio of 3:7. Using the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression and multiple logistic regression, a nomogram was established to select risk predictor variables. The NAFLD prediction model was validated through the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA). After random grouping, the cohort comprised 517 in the training set and 213 in the validation set. The prediction model employed nine of the 20 selected variables, namely gender, hypertension, waist circumference, body mass index, blood platelet, triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, plasma glucose, and alanine aminotransferase. ROC curve analysis yielded an area under the curve values of 0.877 (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.848-0.907) for the training set and 0.871 (95% CI: 0.825-0.917) for the validation set. Optimal critical values were determined as 0.472 (0.786, 0.825) in the training set and 0.457 (0.743, 0.839) in the validation set. Calibration curves for both sets showed proximity to the ideal diagonal, with P-values of 0.972 and 0.370 for the training and validation sets, respectively ( > 0.05). DCA indicated favorable clinical applicability of the model. We constructed a nomogram model that could complement traditional NAFLD detection methods, aiding in individualized risk assessment for NAFLD.