Basic Physics Predicts Stronger High Cloud Radiative Heating With Warming

Radiative heating of clouds, particularly those in the upper troposphere, alters temperature gradients in the atmosphere, affecting circulation and precipitation in today's and future climates. However, the response of cloud radiative heating to global warming remains largely unknown. We study changes to high cloud radiative heating in a warmer climate, identify physical mechanisms responsible for these changes, and develop a theory based on well‐understood physics to predict them. Our approach involves a stepwise procedure that builds upon a simple hypothesis of an upward shift in cloud radiative heating at constant temperature and gradually incorporates additional physics. We find that cloud radiative heating intensifies as clouds move upward, suggesting that the role of high clouds in controlling atmospheric circulations increases in a warmer climate. Plain Language Summary Clouds are moving higher up as the world warms, and this affects local temperatures. When clouds change altitude, the amount of air molecules around them changes too, and that's the key process that drives this change. We show evidence supporting this process using a combination of various atmospheric model simulations and satellite observations. This effect is most evident in high clouds, which experience large altitude shifts as surface temperatures rise. We can predict these changes if we understand how clouds impact local temperatures in today's climate. However, that's still uncertain, and making a solid prediction with our current knowledge is challenging. Key Points Cloud radiative heating intensifies as clouds move upward We show evidence for cloud radiative heating intensification in models of multiple complexity and satellite retrievals We develop a simple theory to predict these changes in cloud radiative heating