Perturbed Biology and Physics Signatures in a 1-D Ocean Biogeochemical Model Ensemble

Sources of uncertainty in a marine biogeochemical model include input from physical processes and the choice of functional forms representing the strength and dependencies of biogeochemical processes. This study explores characteristic signatures from these uncertainties by generating ensembles from perturbing the biogeochemistry equations and perturbing physical input using a 1-D intermediately-complex model run at five oceanographic stations. Perturbed biogeochemistry ensemble (PBE) produces larger spreads than perturbed physics ensemble (PPE), and distinctly different ensemble variations. Fractions of nitrogen in phytoplankton pool from observations show a larger variability than in any single model-ensemble member, but the PBE spread generally captures this variability, whereas the PPE spread does not. The results show that the PBE method gives a more realistic representation of uncertainty than PPE in our 1D-model setup. Our method needs to be tested in more complex models in order to understand its significance on larger scales.