Modelling the Past and Future Evolution of Tidal Sand Waves

This study focuses on the hindcasting and forecasting of observed offshore tidal sand waves by using a state-of-the-art numerical morphodynamic model. The sand waves, having heights of several meters, evolve on timescales of years. Following earlier work, the model has a 2DV configuration (one horizontal and one vertical direction). First, the skill of the model is assessed by performing hindcasts at four transects in the North Sea where sand wave data are available of multiple surveys that are at least 10 years apart. The first transect is used for calibration and this calibrated model is applied to the other three transects. It is found that the calibrated model performs well: the Brier Skill Score is ‘excellent’ at the first two transects and ‘good’ at the last two. The root mean square error of calculated bed levels is smaller than the uncertainty in the measurements, except at the last transect, where the M2 is more elliptical than at the other three transects. The calibrated model is subsequently used to make forecasts of the sand waves along the two transects with the best skill scores.