Multi-driving paths for the coupling coordinated development of agricultural carbon emission reduction and sequestration and food security: A configurational analysis based on dynamic fsQCA

[Display omitted] •Analyzing the coupling coordinated development contributes to environmental sustainability.•The coupling coordination degree shows an upward trend.•Used Dynamic fsQCA to explore multiple driving paths.•Identified three driving paths: technology–driven, finance–driven and urban–development–driven.•Significant regional heterogeneity across driving paths. Exploring the coupling coordinated development of carbon emission reduction and sequestration (CERS) and food security in agriculture is conducive to mitigating climate change and achieving sustainable development goals. However, there is little research on the coupling coordinated development of these two systems. Based on panel data of 31 Chinese provinces from 2001 to 2021, this study used the dynamic fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) method to analyze the levels and driving paths of coupling coordinated development between agricultural CERS and food security. The results revealed that (1) the coupling coordination degree increased from 0.443 in 2001 to 0.489 in 2021, showing an upward trend. (2) We identified three driving paths of coupling coordination development: technology-driven, finance-driven and urban-development-driven. (3) The grain sown area and unit yield are core variables, serving as fundamental pillars, and their combination with technology or financial expenditure enhances this coordinated development. Notably, the grain sown area and unit yield exhibit a complementary relationship, while agricultural technology and financial expenditure demonstrate a substitution relationship. (4) Temporal analysis showed a consistent trend in the technology-driven and finance-driven paths. Regional analysis revealed marked heterogeneity: the technology-finance synergy path predominates in the remote west, the technology-driven path lies in the mountainous southwest, the finance-driven path clusters in the north, and the urban-development-driven path is located in economically advanced regions. Policymakers should formulate policies according to these different driving paths to promote coupling coordinated development.