Co-benefits of carbon and pollution control policies on air quality and health till 2030 in China

•We evaluated China’s health benefits of carbon and air pollution control polices.•Stringent controls would reduce PM2.5- and O3-related mortality by 23% in 2030.•End-of-pipe controls would account for three quarters of the total avoided mortality.•Fraction of people with PM2.5 exposure under 35 μg/m3 would be doubled 2015–2030.•Very few people could live in regions with WHO guideline achieved for O3 in 2030. Facing the dual challenges of climate change and air pollution, China has made great efforts to explore the co-control strategies for the both. We assessed the benefits of carbon and pollution control policies on air quality and human health, with an integrated framework combining an energy-economic model, an air quality model and a concentration–response model. With a base year 2015, seven combined scenarios were developed for 2030 based on three energy scenarios and three end-of-pipe control ones. Policy-specific benefits were then evaluated, indicated by the reduced emissions, surface concentrations of major pollutants, and premature deaths between scenarios. Compared to the 2030 baseline scenario, the nationwide PM2.5- and O3-related mortality was expected to decline 23% or 289 (95% confidence interval: 220–360) thousand in the most stringent scenario, and three quarters of the avoided deaths were attributed to the end-of-pipe control measures. Provinces in heavily polluted and densely populated regions would benefit more from carbon and pollution control strategies. The population fractions with PM2.5 exposure under the national air quality standard (35 μg/m3) and WHO guideline (10 μg/m3) would be doubled from 2015 to 2030 (the most stringent scenario), while still very few people would live in areas with the WHO guideline achieved for O3 (100 μg/m3). Increased health impact of O3 suggested a great significance of joint control of PM2.5 and O3 in future policy-making.