Predictors of half-marathon performance in male recreational athletes

Few research has been conducted on predictors of recreational runners' performance, especially in half-marathon running. The purpose of our study was (a) to investigate the relationship of half-marathon race time with training, anthropometry and physiological characteristics, and (b) to develop a formula to predict half-marathon race time in male recreational runners. Recreational runners (n=134, age 44.2±8.7 years; half-marathon race time 104.6±16.2 min) underwent a physical fitness battery consisting of anthropometric and physiological tests. The participants were classified into five performance groups (fast, 73-92 min; above average, 93-99 min; average 100-107 min; below average, 108-117 min; slow group, 118-160 min). A prediction equation was developed in an experimental group (EXP, n=67), validated in a control group (CON, n=67) and prediction bias was estimated with 95 % confidence intervals (CI). Performance groups differed in half-marathon race time, training days, training distance, age, weight, (body mass index) BMI, body fat (BF) and maximum oxygen uptake (VO max) (p≤0.001, η ≥0.132), where faster groups had better scores than the slower groups. Half-marathon race time correlated with physiological, anthropometric and training characteristics, with the faster the runner, the better the score in these characteristics ( , VO max, r=0.59; BMI, r=-0.55; weekly running distance, r=-0.53, p