Long-Term Egg Production Curve Fitting Using Nonlinear Models For Superior Local Chicken of Indonesia

The objective of this study was to analyze the unique tendencies reported along the egg-production curve for the Kampung Unggul Badan Litbang Pertanian (KUB) chicken. This research was superior to others due to its comprehensive analysis of multiple nonlinear models specifically tailored to the unique egg production patterns of the indigenous KUB chicken, providing highly accurate and practical predictive capabilities for local poultry farming. Egg production was monitored in 797 KUB chickens from 17 breeding flocks. The study evaluated Logistic, Compartmental, Gamma, and Yang to represent the egg production curve. The Yang function, which is suggested as the best-fitting model, accurately reflected the characteristics of the observed data on egg production for KUB chickens. The Yang function had the highest correlation coefficient, medium pseudo R2, lowest MSE, AIC, and BIC. The rankings for the Logistic, Compartmental, and Gamma functions were second, third, and fourth, in that order. In order to predict future results in the weekly egg production of KUB chickens, it is advised that the Yang be used to monitor the beginning rate of production to peak, the peak time of production, and the gradual fall after the peak using prior experiences.