MONITORING AND FORECASTING OF WATER POLLUTION BY HEAVY METALS

As a result of anthropogenic impact, significant changes occur in the morphometric, hydrological, chemical and other characteristics of water bodies, which in turn leads to changes in the structure, productivity and condition of aquatic ecosystems. Pollution of water bodies is the result of anthropogenic activities that lead to negative consequences - deterioration of water quality, threat to water bodies, deterioration of life and health of people. In order to monitor the water ecosystems of Akmola region, the research team took water samples from water bodies (Nura, Ishim Rivers of the Republic of Kazakhstan, Akmola region and Taldykol, Maybalyk and Zhaltyrkol Lakes), collected them in a database and conducted research.We constructed a mathematical model, after which the results were compared with full-scale data.According to water samples, the level of pollution of water sources was evaluated, the obtained data was entered into the database of the water ecosystem of Akmola region, and the collected data was predicted using the ARIMA (autoregressive integrated moving average) model and the R programming language.