Integrated machine learning identifies epithelial cell marker genes for improving outcomes and immunotherapy in prostate cancer

Background Prostate cancer (PCa), a globally prevalent malignancy, displays intricate heterogeneity within its epithelial cells, closely linked with disease progression and immune modulation. However, the clinical significance of genes and biomarkers associated with these cells remains inadequately explored. To address this gap, this study aimed to comprehensively investigate the roles and clinical value of epithelial cell-related genes in PCa. Methods Leveraging single-cell sequencing data from GSE176031, we conducted an extensive analysis to identify epithelial cell marker genes (ECMGs). Employing consensus clustering analysis, we evaluated the correlations between ECMGs, prognosis, and immune responses in PCa. Subsequently, we developed and validated an optimal prognostic signature, termed the epithelial cell marker gene prognostic signature (ECMGPS), through synergistic analysis from 101 models employing 10 machine learning algorithms across five independent cohorts. Additionally, we collected clinical features and previously published signatures from the literature for comparative analysis. Furthermore, we explored the clinical utility of ECMGPS in immunotherapy and drug selection using multi-omics analysis and the IMvigor cohort. Finally, we investigated the biological functions of the hub gene, transmembrane p24 trafficking protein 3 (TMED3), in PCa using public databases and experiments. Results We identified a comprehensive set of 543 ECMGs and established a strong correlation between ECMGs and both the prognostic evaluation and immune classification in PCa. Notably, ECMGPS exhibited robust predictive capability, surpassing traditional clinical features and 80 published signatures in terms of both independence and accuracy across five cohorts. Significantly, ECMGPS demonstrated significant promise in identifying potential PCa patients who might benefit from immunotherapy and personalized medicine, thereby moving us nearer to tailored therapeutic approaches for individuals. Moreover, the role of TMED3 in promoting malignant proliferation of PCa cells was validated. Conclusions Our findings highlight ECMGPS as a powerful tool for improving PCa patient outcomes and supply a robust conceptual framework for in-depth examination of PCa complexities. Simultaneously, our study has the potential to develop a novel alternative for PCa diagnosis and prognostication. Keywords: Prostate cancer, Epithelial cell, Machine learning, Immunotherapy, Prognosis