Predictive Analysis of Airport Safety Performance: Case Study of Split Airport

A predictive safety management methodology implies steps and tools of predictive safety management in aviation, i.e., use of predictive (forecasting) and causal modeling methods to identify potential and possible hazards in the future, as well as their causal factors which can help define timely and efficient mitigation measures to prevent or restrain emerging hazards turning into adverse events. The focus of this paper is to show how predictive analysis of an organization’s safety performance can be conducted, on the sample airport. A case study regarding implementation of predictive analysis of an organization’s safety performance, was performed at Split Airport. The predictive analysis of an airport’s safety performance was conducted through the analysis of Split Airport safety database, causal modeling of Split Airport organizational and safety performance indicators, outlier root cause analysis of Split Airport safety performance indicators, predictive analysis of safety performance (forecasting of Split Airport organizational and safety performance indicators), and scenario cases that simulate future behavior of Split Airport safety performance indicators. Based on detected future hazards, and their causal factors, the appropriate mitigation measures are proposed for the purpose of improving and maintaining an acceptable level of safety at the airport.