Assessing the impact of climate change on three Populus species in China: Distribution patterns and implications

Populus, one of the most extensively cultivated tree species in China, holds substantial potential for carbon sequestration potential and economic value. However, the effects of climate change on different Populus species remain unclear. Consequently, there is an urgency to investigate the potential distribution and dynamics of Populus under current and future climate scenarios. This study employed four ecological niche models and integrated data from multiple environmental sources to analyze the potential distribution patterns of three key Populus species—Populus tomentosa, Populus cathayana, and Populus lasiocarpa—under current and various future climate scenarios (2050, 2070, and 2090). Furthermore, the study identified the primary factors influencing their potential distribution. The occurrence of P. tomentosa was primarily influenced by the minimum temperature of the coldest month. Conversely, human population density was the most important factor for P. cathayana, showing strong positive effects on both P. tomentosa and P. cathayana occurrences. Soil total nitrogen had the strongest positive effect on P. lasiocarpa. The study found P. cathayana primarily in northern and northwestern China (105.45 × 104 km2), P. tomentosa in the northern and central regions (82.85 × 104 km2), and P. lasiocarpa in the southwest (49.17 × 104 km2). Under future climate scenarios, P. tomentosa and P. cathayana may shift towards higher latitudes, while P. lasiocarpa may shift towards lower latitudes. Future elevated temperatures are expected to positively affect Populus, especially P. tomentosa and P. lasiocarpa, thereby increasing their carbon sequestration capacity and carbon market value, which is maximized under a low-concentration scenario (SSP245). This study highlights the importance of climate change in Populus distribution and provides quantified potential distribution maps for three Populus species under current and future climate conditions in China. Based on the different adaptation strategies of Populus species to climate change, we recommend a "site-specific, categorical planting" approach to guide effective forest management practices in response to China's dual carbon goals. •Potential distributions of three Populus species in China were predicted.•We selected the MaxEnt and Random Forest model to map species distribution.•Temperature, human population density and soil factors strongly affected Populus distribution.•Future climate scenarios resulted in the