A review of physical supply and EROI of fossil fuels in China

This paper reviews China＇s future fossil fuelsupply from the perspectives of physical output and netenergy output. Comprehensive analyses of physical outputof fossil fuels suggest that China＇s total oil production willlikely reach its peak, at about 230 Mt/year （or 9.6 E J/year）,in 2018; its total gas production will peak at around350 Bcm/year （or 13.6 EJ/year） in 2040, while coal pro-duction will peak at about 4400 Mt/year （or 91.9 EJ/year）around 2020 or so. In terms of the forecast production ofthese fuels, there are significant differences among currentstudies. These differences can be mainly explained bydifferent ultimately recoverable resources assumptions, thenature of the models used, and differences in the historicalproduction data. Due to the future constraints on fossilfuels production, a large gap is projected to grow betweendomestic supply and demand, which will need to be met byincreasing imports. Net energy analyses show that bothcoal and oil and gas production show a steady decliningtrend of EROI （energy return on investment） due to thedepletion of shallow-buried coal resources and conven-tional oil and gas resources, which is generally consistentwith the approaching peaks of physical production of fossilfuels. The peaks of fossil fuels production, coupled wilhthe decline in EROI ratios, are likely to challenge thesustainable development of Chinese society unless newabundant energy resources with high EROI values can befound.