Geomatics, soft computing, and innovative simulator: prediction of susceptibility to landslide risk

Landslides represent a growing threat among the various morphological processes that cause damage to territories. To address this problem and prevent the associated risks, it is essential to quickly find adequate methodologies capable of predicting these phenomena in advance. The following study focuses on the implementation of an experimental WebGIS infrastructure designed and built to predict the susceptibility index of a specific presumably at-risk area in real time (using specific input data) and in response to extreme weather events (such as heavy rain). The climate data values are calculated through an innovative and experimental atmospheric simulator developed by the authors, which is capable of providing data on meteorological variables with high spatial precision. To this end, the terrain is represented through cellular automata, implementing a suitable neural network useful for producing the desired output. The effectiveness of this methodology was tested on two debris flow events that occurred in the Calabria region, specifically in the province of Reggio Calabria, in 2001 and 2005, which caused extensive damage. The (forecast) results obtained with the proposed methodology were compared with the (known) historical data, confirming the effectiveness of the method in predicting (and therefore signaling the possibility of an imminent landslide event) a higher susceptibility index than the known one and one provided (to date) by the Higher Institute for Environmental Protection and Research (ISPRA), validating the result obtained through the actual subsequent occurrence of a landslide event in the area under investigation. Therefore, the method proposed today is not aimed at predicting the local movement of a small landslide area, but is primarily aimed at predicting the change or improving the variation of the landslide susceptibility index to compare the predicted value with the current one provided by the relevant bodies (ISPRA), thus signaling an alert for the entire area under investigation.