Predicting the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions against COVID-19 on Mycoplasma pneumoniae in the United States

The introduction of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) against COVID-19 disrupted circulation of many respiratory pathogens and eventually caused large, delayed outbreaks, owing to the build up of the susceptible pool during the intervention period. In contrast to other common respiratory pathogens that re-emerged soon after the NPIs were lifted, longer delays (> 3 years) in the outbreaks of Mycoplasma pneumoniae (Mp), a bacterium commonly responsible for respiratory infections and pneumonia, have been reported in Europe and Asia. As Mp cases are continuing to increase in the US, predicting the size of an imminent outbreak is timely for public health agencies and decision makers. Here, we use simple mathematical models to provide robust predictions about a large Mp outbreak ongoing in the US. Our model further illustrates that NPIs and waning immunity are important factors in driving long delays in epidemic resurgence. •An increase in Mp cases have been observed in the US.•The SIRS model predicts a large Mp outbreak in the US that extends until 2025.•NPIs and immune waning are key drivers of long delays in Mp resurgence.