Cancer incidence in the first year of COVID-19 epidemic

Introduction: During the past decade in Slovenia, the number of new cancer diagnoses (incidence) has risen by 1.6% annually. In 2020, the first year of the COVID-19 epidemic, a 3–8% decrease in new cancer diagnoses was projected by the OnCOvid platform. Our aim is to present the official cancer incidence for 2020 for Slovenia and to communicate the actual lack of new cancer diagnose. Methods: In the Slovenian Cancer Registry, all Slovene inhabitants diagnosed with cancer in 2020 were registered following the international rules. The results were compared to the official incidence for 2019, modelled incidence for 2020, OnCOvidˊs preliminary results and available data from other population-based cancer registries. Results: In 2020, 15,096 inhabitants were diagnosed with cancer in Slovenia (7,034 women, 8,002 men). Compared to the modelled incidence for 2020, there was a decrease of 1,854 persons (10.9%; 11.6% in women, 10.4 % in men). The decrease is highest in the localized stage and in patients aged 50–69 years (13.2%). The decrease for Slovenia is comparable to decreases in England, the United States and Canada, but somewhat higher than in Scotland and Sweden. The largest decrease in new cancer cases was found for non-melanoma skin cancer (23%, mostly after age 50), prostate (15.9%, localized stage), lung (8.9%, 60–64 years, regional stage) and breast cancer (8.3%, 45–64 years), non-Hodgkin lymphoma (9%) and leukaemia (11.6%), with no decrease in melanoma and colorectal cancer cases. Conclusions: The decrease in cancer incidence for 2020 is likely due to containment measures, healthcare reorganisation and health-seeking behaviour during the COVID-19 epidemic, which is also reported by other countries. Uninterrupted provision of cancer care during epidemics is needed.