Prescribed burning has limited effects on the population dynamics of rare plants

Rare species serve important ecosystem functions, including community resilience to global change. Yet rare species are disappearing globally because of anthropogenic activities such as fire suppression. Prescribed burning is a widespread management approach that can reduce invasive plant presence, recycle nutrients, and restore species diversity. However, the effects of prescribed burning on rare plants are not well understood. We analyzed the population dynamics of 67 rare, native plant species in response to prescribed burning using the Chicago botanic garden's Plants of Concern dataset. This dataset includes rare plant populations concentrated in the northeast part of Illinois, and a few populations in Indiana and Wisconsin, United States. We evaluated the effects of burning by comparing the percent change in population size in the short‐term (1–2 years) and long‐term (3–4 years) after prescribed burning, to the percent change in population size not following burns. In a global model with all species, we did not detect the effects of burning on percent change in population size. In species‐level analyses, we detected burn effects for most species for which we had the statistical power to detect possible burn responses, although the direction of their responses was mixed. Five species responded consistently between short‐ and long‐term datasets, and four species had mixed responses, with most responding positively over the short‐term and negatively over the long‐term. We complemented this analysis with a literature review of fire responses for available species. Our literature review revealed more responses to burning than what we found from our analyses; however, most of this evidence does not compare burned and unburned populations directly and should be treated cautiously. Through community science monitoring efforts, we were able to compile one of the largest studies of burn effects on rare plants to date, but continued monitoring is necessary to fully evaluate how prescribed burning impacts rare plant species.