Analysis of factors influencing carbon emissions in the evolution of road electrification in Beijing

In this article, a comprehensive analysis is conducted on the influencing factors of carbon emissions in the transportation sector during the evolution of electrification in Beijing. We also considered the impact of indirect carbon emissions caused by carbon emissions from public and private cars and electricity consumption on overall carbon emissions. Based on the LMDI decomposition theory, nine influencing factors are separated, including development level, energy intensity, vehicle structure, number of private cars, and private transportation energy consumption. The analysis results show that, from 2010 to 2021, the carbon emissions from transportation in Beijing increased from 922.98 × 104t to 1490.6 × 104t. The private road carbon emission accounts for about 77.97%, and has become a decisive factor affecting road carbon emissions. In the public domain the contribution values of the development level and energy intensity are 25.20% and −38.71%, respectively. And they are the two most critical factors affecting carbon emissions on public road carbon emissions. In the private domain, the contribution values of the number of private cars, energy consumption of private transportation, and vehicle structure are 60.17%, 47.86%, and −12.99%, respectively. They are the three key factors affecting the private road carbon emissions. There is a significant difference in the proportion of indirect carbon emissions from electricity in the public and private domain. Indirect carbon emissions from electricity account for about 13.6% of road carbon emissions in the public sector, and about 0.9% in the private sector. The results in this paper provide useful references for decision-making in the adjustment of transportation energy structure and the promotion of electrified transportation in Beijing and other cities.