Understanding the underlying mechanisms governing the linkage between atmospheric oxidative capacity and ozone precursor sensitivity in the Yangtze River Delta, China: A multi-tool ensemble analysis

[Display omitted] •Detecting O3-precursor sensitivity (OPS) is key for building O3 control strategies.•We analyze the relationship between the HO2/OH indicator and OPS in the YRD.•WRF-CAMx and ensemble diagnostic tools reveal the mechanisms of this relationship.•HO2/OH can be used to identify OPS and quantify O3 sensitivity to its precursors. Continued exacerbation of ozone (O3) pollution in China has driven the urgent need for an emission control strategy that efficiently reduces O3 levels. Determining O3 precursor sensitivity (OPS) and its driving factors is a prerequisite for formulating effective O3 control strategies. In this study, we proposed an atmospheric oxidative capacity-based indicator, HO2/OH, and demonstrated its effectiveness in indicating OPS over the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) of China by applying a localized comprehensive air quality model with extensions (CAMx) coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. A strong correlation was discovered between HO2/OH and OPS, and HO2/OH showed the best performance in separating NOx- and VOC-limited regimes in comparison with other commonly used indicators. A comprehensive analysis with ensemble diagnostic tools revealed the spatial heterogeneity of NOx and VOC emissions and the impact of regional transport controlling the relationship between OPS variations and the HO2/OH indicator over the YRD. The process analysis results show that days with higher contributions from horizontal advection favored OPS transitions in Shanghai, Nanjing, Hefei, Suzhou, and Wuhu, while vertical advection caused OPS transitions in Hangzhou and Ningbo. O3 source apportionment technology analysis indicated that the regional contributions from Zhejiang and Jiangsu/Anhui corresponded well to the NOx-limited and VOC-limited regimes, respectively. Our results provide a better understanding of the underlying mechanisms of the relationship between OPS and the HO2/OH indicator and can help guide contingency control measures for O3 despiking over the YRD and other photochemically active regions worldwide.