Spatiotemporal variability in fire foci detection in the state of Pará, Brazil

ABSTRACT In the current climate change scenario, the adoption of actions aimed at reducing wildland fires and, consequently, greenhouse gas emissions is urgent. The use of environmental satellites to trace wildland fires is an essential instrument in the development of fire prevention strategies. The objectives of this study were to (a) analyze the spatiotemporal variability in fire foci detection in the state of Pará, Brazil; (b) identify the main differences between data from AQUA and Suomi-NPP (S-NPP) satellites; and (c) determine the variables responsible for changes in fire detection at municipal level. Mean annual detection of fire foci was of 43,488 by AQUA based on data from 2003-2023, and of 156,038 by S-NPP from 2012-2023. During the overlap period, S-NPP detected 4.5 times more foci than AQUA. Despite the difference, both datasets were significantly correlated. Most fire foci were detected in August, September and November. São Félix do Xingu and Altamira were the municipalities with the highest number of detections, while Bajaru and Concórdia do Pará registered higher fire foci density. Of the 144 municipalities, 89 were classified as having extreme fire incidence. Deforested area was the variable that presented the highest correlation with municipal fire density, followed by pasture area, rainfall, urbanized area, forest area, agricultural area and demographic density. The results of this study could be used as basis for the development of public policies aiming at the reduction of wildland fire occurrence in Pará. RESUMO No cenário atual de mudanças climáticas, é urgente adotar medidas que visem a diminuição da queima da vegetação e, consequentemente, da emissão de gases do efeito estufa. O uso de satélites ambientais para a detecção de focos de queima é uma ferramenta fundamental para o desenvolvimento de estratégias de prevenção ao fogo. Este estudo objetivou (a) analisar a variação no registro de focos de queima no estado do Pará, Brasil; (b) identificar as principais diferenças entre os dados dos satélites AQUA e S-NPP; e (c) identificar as variáveis correlacionadas com o registro de focos a nível municipal. A média anual de focos detectados foi de 43.488 com AQUA para o período 2003-2023, e de 156.038 com S-NPP para 2012-2023. Durante o período de sobreposição, S-NPP detectou 4,5 vezes mais focos que AQUA. Apesar da diferença, ambos os dados se correlacionaram significativamente. A maioria dos focos foi detectada em agosto, setembro e no