Prediction of false-positive PI-RADS 5 lesions on prostate multiparametric MRI: development and internal validation of a clinical-radiological characteristics based nomogram

To develop a risk model including clinical and radiological characteristics to predict false-positive The Prostate Imaging Reporting and Data System (PI-RADS) 5 lesions. Data of 612 biopsy-naïve patients who had undergone multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging (mpMRI) before prostate biopsy were collected. Clinical variables and radiological variables on mpMRI were adopted. Lesions were divided into the training and validation cohort randomly. Stepwise multivariate logistic regression analysis with backward elimination was performed to screen out variables with significant difference. A diagnostic nomogram was developed in the training cohort and further validated in the validation cohort. Calibration curve and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis were also performed. 296 PI-RADS 5 lesions in 294 patients were randomly divided into the training and validation cohort (208 : 88). 132 and 56 lesions were confirmed to be clinically significant prostate cancer in the training and validation cohort respectively. The diagnostic nomogram was developed based on prostate specific antigen density, the maximum diameter of lesion, zonality of lesion, apparent diffusion coefficient minimum value and apparent diffusion coefficient minimum value ratio. The C-index of the model was 0.821 in the training cohort and 0.871 in the validation cohort. The calibration curve showed good agreement between the estimation and observation in the two cohorts. When the optimal cutoff values of ROC were 0.288 in the validation cohort, the sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV were 90.6%, 67.9%, 61.7%, and 92.7% in the validation cohort, potentially avoiding 9.7% unnecessary prostate biopsies. We developed and validated a diagnostic nomogram by including 5 factors. False positive PI-RADS 5 lesions could be distinguished from clinically significant ones, thus avoiding unnecessary prostate biopsy.