Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Betula pendula Crown Cover on Abandoned Arable Land in a Broad-Leaved Forest Zone of Bashkir Cis-Ural

Silver birch (Betula pendula Roth) is one of the fast-growing tree species that often colonize abandoned agricultural lands in Europe and the European part of Russia. The purpose of this article is to analyze the spatiotemporal dynamics of Betula pendula crown cover on abandoned arable lands in a zone of broad-leaved forests of the Bashkir Cis-Ural (Russia, Republic of Bashkortostan). The assessment of current and retrospective values of crown cover was carried out using a regression model of the dependence of crown cover on the values of red channel brightness in early-spring images from Landsat 5–8 and Sentinel-2 satellites from 2012–2022. To estimate the number and height of trees, a survey was carried out using a LiDAR camera mounted on a UAV. After calculating the crown cover in grid squares and their distance from the seed source in QGIS, variance analysis was carried out to assess the influence of the factor of distance from the seed source on the crown cover. The influence of the factor of distance from the seed source on the crown cover was higher at earlier stages of overgrowth of abandoned agricultural lands. An exception to this dependence was only one sample plot where the prevailing wind direction was opposite to the direction of seed dispersal. The leading factors affecting the distribution of birch on abandoned agricultural lands were wind direction, height of seed trees, and grazing. In the parts of the sample plots that were furthest away from seed sources, the trees were 1–3 years younger or the same age, and stand density was lower than in sites located closer to the seed trees. In general, the results of the present study indicate two opposite relationships between seedling survival and distance to seed trees: (1) seed fall and seedling density decrease with increasing distance from the seed tree, and (2) the probability of seed/seedling survival increases due to decreased competition.