Drought as a possible contributor to the Visigothic Kingdom crisis and Islamic expansion in the Iberian Peninsula

The Muslim expansion in the Mediterranean basin was one the most relevant and rapid cultural changes in human history. This expansion reached the Iberian Peninsula with the replacement of the Visigothic Kingdom by the Muslim Umayyad Caliphate and the Muslim Emirate of Córdoba during the 8th century CE. In this study we made a compilation of western Mediterranean pollen records to gain insight about past climate conditions when this expansion took place. The pollen stack results, together with other paleohydrological records, archaeological data and historical sources, indicate that the statistically significant strongest droughts between the mid-5th and mid-10th centuries CE (450–950 CE) occurred at 545–570, 695–725, 755–770 and 900–935 CE, which could have contributed to the instability of the Visigothic and Muslim reigns in the Iberian Peninsula. Our study supports the great sensitivity of the agriculture-based economy and socio-political unrest of Early Medieval kingdoms to climatic variations. Here, the authors compile pollen records from across Iberia and Morocco, comparing them with other paleohydrological and archaeological data, as well as historical sources. Using these data, they suggest that a series of strong droughts could have contributed to the decline of the Visigothic Kingdom and subsequent Islamic expansion.