Weather stressors correlate with Escherichia coli and Salmonella enterica persister formation rates in the phyllosphere: a mathematical modeling study

Enteric pathogens can enter a persister state in which they survive exposure to antibiotics and physicochemical stresses. Subpopulations of such phenotypic dormant variants have been detected in vivo and in planta in the laboratory, but their formation in the natural environment remains largely unexplored. We applied a mathematical model predicting the switch rate to persister cell in the phyllosphere to identify weather-related stressors associated with E. coli and S. enterica persister formation on plants based on their population dynamics in published field studies from the USA and Spain. Model outputs accurately depicted the bi-phasic decay of bacterial population sizes measured in the lettuce and spinach phyllosphere in these studies. Predicted E. coli persister switch rate on leaves was positively and negatively correlated with solar radiation intensity and wind velocity, respectively. Likewise, predicted S. enterica persister switch rate correlated positively with solar radiation intensity; however, a negative correlation was observed with air temperature, relative humidity, and dew point, factors involved in water deposition onto the phylloplane. These findings suggest that specific environmental factors may enrich for dormant bacterial cells on plants. Our model quantifiably links persister cell subpopulations in the plant habitat with broader physical conditions, spanning processes at different granular scales.