Assessment of Past Decadal Dynamics of Tree Stands in Forest–Tundra Transition Zone on the Polar Ural Mountains Calibrated Using Historical and Modern Field Measurements

Altitudinal forest limits are typically climatically dependent, such that increasing temperatures connected to global warming are causing upslope shifts in treeline ecotones worldwide. However, at the local and regional levels, the degree of such a response is dependent on differences in climate, topography and soil features. In recent decades, attempts have been undertaken to estimate tree stand dynamics with remote sensing methods, but their resolution is still too coarse for a precise assessment of stand structural changes, and requires ground-truthing, which is not possible without historical data collected on a single-tree level. We used aerial photos (1962) and satellite images (2021) in combination with historical inventory data to investigate changes in open forest positions at different spatial scales at the eastern macroslope of the Polar Urals over the past 60 years. Additionally, obtained remote sensing data were validated on a single-slope level using tree crown size estimations. Our investigations showed that since 1960 up to present day, the total crown coverage increased from 6.9 to 22.1% within the test polygon. A highly spatially variable upslope advance in an open forest boundary was identified from 1.7 up to 7.1 m in altitude per decade. We revealed that the rate of tree stand transformations was to a great extent depended on the stand density in the 1960s, soil substrate type, moisture regime, slope aspect and inclination. Our results highlighted the necessity to consider the abovementioned factors when trying to predict climate-induced tree distributional responses in subarctic mountain regions.