Fault chain risk expectation-based resilient transmission hardening planning against hurricane

Hardening planning is an effective way to enhance the ability of the transmission system against hurricane attacks and further improve the resilience of power systems. However, the existing hardening method gives little consideration to the risk of multiple failures under hurricanes which may underestimate the real post-disaster damage. To fill the research gap, this paper proposes a resilience index, i.e. fault chain risk expectation (FCRE), which can measure the risk of multiple failures under hurricanes. Then the FCRE-based resilient transmission hardening planning (RTHP) model is proposed to minimize hardening and load shedding penalty costs under different hurricane scenarios. In this paper, hurricane simulation is finished by critical parameters firstly, then the failure probability curve is adopted to obtain the spatial–temporal failure probability of different components, and finally, the corresponding contingency scenarios under simulated hurricanes are obtained by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and k-means clustering algorithms. Meanwhile, the set of fault chains is constructed to calculate the FCRE for each line, and the corresponding constraint is formed to ensure that the system resilience reaches a target level. The proposed model is verified on the modified RTS 24-bus system and the results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed hardening planning method.