Island development model specialisation: a panel data analysis comparing evolutionary tourism model, industrial to community-based (2010-2019)

Islands are frequently characterised by an economic structure centred on tourism and the service sector. This specialisation has taken different forms and characterisations concerning the chosen or spontaneously developed model. To understand the development choices and patterns, this article analyses sixteen islands and archipelagos in the European Union over ten years from 2010 to 2019. A panel data analysis was based on critical variables identifying the tourism industry model from those that could represent a proxy of the community-based tourism model. The principal component analysis was adopted to compare the evolutionary trends of these two different ways of choosing the island's tourism model. Findings identified before the COVID-19 pandemic crisis include two island clusters. One group of islands followed a spontaneous tourism model based on the local community and small or micro hospitality systems, with auto-entrepreneurship in tourism. The second group of islands followed a planning and industry-based tourist model with an employment system and a relevant hospitality industry. Both paradigms have limitations and identify two different tourism evolutionary scenarios useful for the EU's future island tourism policies.