Prediction method of regional carbon dioxide emissions in China under the target of peaking carbon dioxide emissions: A case study of Zhejiang

All provinces of China respond to the central government, predict future carbon dioxide emissions, and formulate action plans detailing how the province intends to fulfill its target of carbon emission peaking before 2030. Based on the bottom‐up energy consumption prediction and top‐down goal verification, this paper constructs a set of regional carbon dioxide emission prediction methods. Compared to the traditional bottom‐up prediction method, this method could simplify the parameters while improving the prediction accuracy. This model is used to predict and analyze the process of carbon dioxide emission peaking in Zhejiang. The results show that the mean absolute percentage error of the retrospective prediction value is only 1.56%. Zhejiang will reach carbon dioxide emission peaking around 2029–2030, and the peak value will be 569.7 million tons. Different factors have different effects on the process of carbon dioxide emission peaking. There is a strong correlation between the peak time of carbon dioxide emission and the production time of major energy‐consuming projects in Zhejiang. Meanwhile, if the 16 nuclear reactors are not put into operation, Zhejiang will not be able to achieve the goal of carbon dioxide emission peaking. Besides, the basic data used in this model is mainly from the local statistical departments of the region. Thus, it can be applied to other provinces and regions conveniently. In response to China's central government, all provinces are developing carbon emission action plans to peak before 2030. A new method for predicting regional carbon emissions, combining bottom‐up consumption prediction and top‐down goal verification, simplifies parameters by 60% while enhancing accuracy, which predicts carbon emissions peaking by 2029–2030 at 569.7 million tons. Key factors influencing the peaking process include energy project timing and the operation of 16 nuclear reactors, which are crucial for achieving the goal.