Effects of clouds and aerosols on downwelling surface solar irradiance nowcasting and short-term forecasting

Solar irradiance nowcasting and short-term forecasting are important tools for the integration of solar plants into the electricity grid. Understanding the role of clouds and aerosols in those techniques is essential for improving their accuracy. In this study, we introduce improvements in the existing nowcasting and short-term forecasting operational systems SENSE (Solar Energy Nowcasting System) and NextSENSE achieved by using a new configuration and by upgrading cloud and aerosol inputs, and we also investigate the limitations of evaluating such models using surface-based sensors due to cloud effects. We assess the real-time estimates of surface global horizontal irradiance (GHI) produced by the improved SENSE2 operational system at high spatial and temporal resolution (â¼ 5 km, 15 min) for a domain including Europe and the Middle East-North Africa (MENA) region and the short-term forecasts of GHI (up to 3 h ahead) produced by the NextSENSE2 system against ground-based measurements from 10 stations across the models' domain for a whole year (2017).