Electron Density and Biologically Effective Dose (BED) Radiomics-Based Machine Learning Models to Predict Late Radiation-Induced Subcutaneous Fibrosis

to predict the occurrence of late subcutaneous radiation induced fibrosis (RIF) after partial breast irradiation (PBI) for breast carcinoma by using machine learning (ML) models and radiomic features from 3D Biologically Effective Dose (3D-BED) and Relative Electron Density (3D-RED). 165 patients underwent external PBI following a hypo-fractionation protocol consisting of 40 Gy/10 fractions, 35 Gy/7 fractions, and 28 Gy/4 fractions, for 73, 60, and 32 patients, respectively. Physicians evaluated toxicity at regular intervals by the Common Terminology Adverse Events (CTAE) version 4.0. RIF was assessed every 3 months after the completion of radiation course and scored prospectively. RIF was experienced by 41 (24.8%) patients after average 5 years of follow up. The Hounsfield Units (HU) of the CT-images were converted into relative electron density (3D-RED) and Dose maps into Biologically Effective Dose (3D-BED), respectively. Shape, first-order and textural features of 3D-RED and 3D-BED were calculated in the planning target volume (PTV) and breast. Clinical and demographic variables were also considered (954 features in total). Imbalance of the dataset was addressed by data augmentation using ADASYN technique. A subset of non-redundant features that best predict the data was identified by sequential feature selection. Support Vector Machines (SVM), ensemble machine learning (EML) using various aggregation algorithms and Naive Bayes (NB) classifiers were trained on patient dataset to predict RIF occurrence. Models were assessed using sensitivity and specificity of the ML classifiers and the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve (AUC) of the score functions in repeated 5-fold cross validation on the augmented dataset. The SVM model with seven features was preferred for RIF prediction and scored sensitivity 0.83 (95% CI 0.80-0.86), specificity 0.75 (95% CI 0.71-0.77) and AUC of the score function 0.86 (0.85-0.88) on cross-validation. The selected features included cluster shade and Run Length Non-uniformity of breast 3D-BED, kurtosis and cluster shade from PTV 3D-RED, and 10th percentile of PTV 3D-BED. Textures extracted from 3D-BED and 3D-RED in the breast and PTV can predict late RIF and may help better select patient candidates to exclusive PBI.