TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS AND MODELLING TO PREDICT AVIATION SAFETY PERFORMANCE INDEX

Safety performance index is a tool with the potential to grasp the intangible domain of aviation safety, based on quantification of meaningful aviation safety system properties. The tool itself was developed in the form of Aerospace Performance Factor and is already available for the aviation industry. However, the tool turned out to be rather unsuccessful as its potential was not fully recognised by the industry. This paper introduces performed analysis on the potential and it outlines new features, utilising time-series analysis, which can improve both the recognition of the index by the industry as well as the motivations to further research and develop methodologies to evaluate overall aviation safety performance using its quantified system properties. This paper discusses not only the features but also their embedding into the existing approach for the development of aviation safety, highlighting possible deficiencies to overcome and relating the scientific work already performed in the domain. Various types of appropriate time-series methodologies are addressed and key specifications of their use with respect to the discussed issue concerning safety performance index are stated. Keywords: aerospace performance factor; safety evaluation tools; safety performance index; signal analysis; stochastic control