Future challenges of terrestrial water storage over the arid regions of Central Asia

•The terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) of the GRACE satellite mission shows that the autumn terrestrial water storage over Central Asia is more vulnerable than that in other seasons.•The autumn TWSA values simulated by the CMIP6 models are larger, and the declining TWS trends are weaker over Central Asia.•The results projected by the CMIP6 models show that the future autumn water scarcity will be the most severe in Tajikistan and southwestern Kazakhstan. Since the arid regions of Central Asia (ACA) are located in the interior of Eurasia, water resources play a vital role in the stability of its ecosystem and economic development. Based on the terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) of the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), we analyze the observed characteristics of the TWSA over the ACA during 2003–2014. Results indicate that the terrestrial water storage (TWS) in the region showed an overall declining trend from 2003 to 2014, and the autumn TWS in this region is the smallest compared to other seasons and exhibits a strong decreasing trend at least −4.5 cm/decade. This means water resources over the ACA are scarcer and more vulnerable in autumn. The Distance between Indices of Simulation and Observation (DISO) method is employed to evaluate the performance of the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models in simulating the autumn TWSA over the ACA. Compared with observational results, the autumn TWSA values captured by CMIP6 models are larger and the declining TWS trends are weaker. Using the optimal CMIP6 models, the statistical downscaling method constrains the projection results of autumn TWSA values over the ACA using the GRACE datasets. It shows autumn TWS will continue to decrease in most parts of the ACA in the future, and water scarcity will be the most severe in Tajikistan and southwestern Kazakhstan. Under SSP126, Tajikistan’s TWSA is projected to decrease by 11.0 cm in the long term. This study reveals the current situation and possible future changes in TWS over the ACA in autumn, providing references for water resource management and sustainable development policies in this area to avoid losses caused by water scarcity.