Predictive model for growth of Pseudomonas spp. on fresh duck breast as a function of temperature

This study was performed to develop a predictive growth model of Pseudomonas spp. to ensure the safety of fresh duck breast. Sterile fresh duck breasts were inoculated with Pseudomonas spp. and stored at 4°C, 10°C, 15°C, 20°C, 25°C, and 30°C to measure the microbial change. The Baranyi primary model was used to simulate the growth changes of Pseudomonas spp. at different temperatures. The square root type model and hyperbolic function as secondary models were used to model the effect of temperature on the maximum specific growth rate and lag phase duration. The results showed that the primary models fitted the growth data well (all R2 > 0.900 and RMSE were close to 0). In validation study of secondary model, R2 were 0.987 and 0.925, RMSE were 0.017 and 1.825, respectively, indicating that the parameters of primary models were accurately predicted by secondary models. The validation experiments at tested temperatures proved that the changes of Pseudomonas spp. could be predicted accurately by the developed models combining primary and secondary models both at constant and variable temperatures. The model could be applied to predict the growth of Pseudomonas spp. in logistics for avoiding microbial spoilage on fresh duck breast.