Modeling and Prediction of Carbon Monoxide during the Start-Up in ICE through VARX Regression

In a global society that is increasingly interrelated and focused on mobility, carbon monoxide emissions derived from internal combustion vehicles remain the most important factor that must be addressed to improve environmental quality. Certainly, air pollution generated by internal combustion engines threatens human health and the well-being of the planet. In this regard, this paper aims to address the urgent need to understand and face the CO emissions produced by internal combustion vehicles; therefore, this work proposes a mathematical model based on Auto-Regressive Exogenous that predicts the CO percentages produced by an internal combustion engine during its start-up. The main goal is to establish a strategy for diagnosing excessive CO emissions caused by changes in the engine temperature. The proposed CO emissions modeling is evaluated under a real dataset obtained from experiments, and the obtained results make the proposed method suitable for being implemented as a novel diagnosis tool in automotive maintenance programs.