Quantifying the Potential Vegetation Distribution under Climate Change: The Case of Cryptomeria fortunei in Dongting Lake Watershed, China

Potential vegetation distribution is an important study in environmental sciences. We utilized the Mixed Least Squares–Total Least Squares (MLS-TLS) method and the Signal Mode Decomposition method and the Ecological Niche model to identify the inter-correlations of internal climate change factors and constructed an environmental factor response regression model. We identified the resonance periods and trend relationships among climate factors (temperature, precipitation, and evapotranspiration) and found that the evapotranspiration of the watershed interferes with the correlation between temperature and precipitation on a five-year scale. The specific change degree of extreme climate indicators in the region was quantified by the Range of Variability Approach, among which the precipitation indicators were all below 33% (low change). There were significant differences between the key bioclimatic variables and Aspect of the development of suitable vegetation habitats. The difference between the Aspect and average daily air temperature is the main contributor to the spatial distribution of vegetation, and the mutual contribution is 76.19%. Our regression model can effectively simulate the potential distribution of vegetation (r = 0.854). Compared to the MaxEnt model, our regression model can quantitatively and intuitively provide suitable habitat values for Cryptomeria fortunei at any given location in the basin. Under future scenarios (2021–2040), suitable habitat for Cryptomeria fortunei in the eastern and western regions of the basin is projected to deteriorate further. The research results can provide some help for policymakers to eliminate the potential adverse effects of future climate change on regional ecology.