Detection of the nonlinear response of vegetation to terrestrial water storage changes in central Asian endorheic basins

•NDVI differentiation in endorheic basins was described nonlinearly by the TWSA.•Approximately 98% of NDVI in the study area responded nonlinearly to the TWSA.•The nonlinear causal test was improved by considering the optimal moving window. The terrestrial water storage anomaly (TWSA) is an important parameter for assessing the land water budget, and it interacts well with terrestrial ecosystems via complex hydrological processes. Recently, the decline in central Asian terrestrial water storage (TWS) has threatened the health of local ecosystems. Therefore, it is of great significance to adopt an efficient approach to explore and identify the nonlinear relationship between two important indicators, i.e., the TWSA and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in the arid central Asian endorheic basins. In this study, we analysed the long-term trends of the TWSA and NDVI, and identified the lag month (1 month) as the optimal moving window of the nonlinear Granger causality test embedded in random forest to detect the nonlinear NDVI change response of NDVI changes in vegetation to the TWSA from 2003 to 2015. There are decreasing trends in TWSAs over approximately 81.7% of the study area and the NDVI generally decreased resulting in approximately 36% vegetation browning in the study area. The nonlinear Granger unidirectional causes of the TWSA were responsible for 97.9% of the NDVI variation in the study area considering the optimal response time for moving windows. The causes of vegetation browning in the central Asian Aral Sea basin and vegetation greening in the basins of Northwest China could be mostly explained by the changes in TWS. Our findings contribute to understanding the nonlinear causal linkages between vegetation and the TWSA in endorheic basins, and these findings provide insights for obtaining terrestrial water consumption patterns and water resource management under the joint influence of climate change and human activities.