Climate change mitigation potentials of on grid-connected Power-to-X fuels and advanced biofuels for the European maritime transport

[Display omitted] •Current GHG intensity of biofuels may vary from 2 to 158 gCO2eqMJ−1 in Europe.•For current Power-to-X fuels (PtX), the range is even larger: 8–797 g CO2eqMJ−1.•In 2050, biofuel GHG intensities may range from 1 to 68 g CO2eqMJ−1.•PtX fuels GHG intensities may range from 4 to 37 g CO2eqMJ−1 in 2050.•For 2050′s GHG intensity goals, electricity below 17 gCO2eqkWh−1 is crucial in PtX. This study proposes a country-based life-cycle assessment (LCA) of several conversion pathways related to both on grid-connected Power-to-X (PtX) fuels and advanced biofuel production for maritime transport in Europe. We estimate the biomass resource availability (both agricultural and forest residues and second-generation energy crops from abandoned cropland), electricity mix, and a future-oriented prospective LCA to assess how future climate change mitigation policies influence the results. Our results indicate that the potential of PtX fuels to achieve well-to-wake greenhouse gas intensities lower than those of fossil fuels is limited to countries with a carbon intensity of the electricity mix below 100 gCO2eq kWh−1. The more ambitious FuelEU Maritime goal could be achieved with PtX only if connected to electricity sources below ca. 17 gCO2eq kWh−1 which can become possible for most of the national electricity mixes in Europe by 2050 if renewable energy sources will become deployed at large scales. For drop-in and hydrogen-based biofuels, biomass residues have a higher potential to reduce emissions than dedicated energy crops. In Europe, the potentials of energy supply from all renewable and low-carbon fuels (RLFs) range from 32 to 149% of the current annual fuel consumption in European maritime transport. The full deployment of RLFs with carbon capture and storage technologies could mitigate up to 184% of the current well-to-wake shipping emissions in Europe. Overall, our study highlights how the strategic use of both hydrogen-based biofuels and PtX fuels can contribute to the climate mitigation targets for present and future scenarios of European maritime transport.