Criteria for early diagnosis of mandibular third molar agenesis based on the developmental stages of mandibular canine, first and second premolars, and second molar: a retrospective cohort study

Background Permanent first molars with severe dental caries, developmental defects, or involved in oral pathologies are at risk of poor prognosis in children. Accordingly, using the third molar to replace the first molar can be a good treatment option when third molar agenesis is predicted early. Thus, this retrospective cohort study aimed to develop criteria for early detection of mandibular third molar (L8) agenesis based on the developmental stages of mandibular canine (L3), first premolar (L4), second premolar (L5), and second molar (L7). Method Overall, 1,044 and 919 panoramic radiographs of 343 males and 317 females, respectively, taken between the ages of 6 and 12 years were included. All developmental stages of L3, L4, L5, L7, and L8 were analyzed based on the dental age, as suggested by Demirjian et al. The independent t-test was used to assess age differences between males and females. The rank correlation coefficients were examined using Kendall's tau with bootstrap analysis and Bonferroni's correction to confirm the teeth showing developmental stages most similar to those of L8s. Finally, a survival analysis was performed to determine the criteria for the early diagnosis of mandibular third molar agenesis. Results Some age differences were found in dental developmental stages between males and females. Correlation coefficients between all stages of L3, L4, L5, and L7 and L8 were high. In particular, the correlation coefficient between L7 and L8 was the highest, whereas that between L3 and L8 was the lowest. Conclusion If at least two of the following criteria (F stage of L3, F stage of L4, F stage of L5, and E stage of L7) are met in the absence of L8 crypt, agenesis of L8 can be confirmed. Keywords: Diagnostic criteria, Tooth agenesis, Mandibular third molar, Dental developmental stage, Survival analysis