Spatiotemporal evolution and suitability of apple production in China from climate change and land use transfer perspectives

Apple production in China, the world's largest apple producer and consumer, is challenged by a huge and growing population coupled with rapid industrialisation and urbanisation. China's apple output has increased continuously over the past 42 years with distinctive spatial differences. Herein, changes in the spatial patterns of apple production increases, and their potential impact factors in China are described at the provincial level. Between 1978 and 2019, the centre‐of‐gravity of apple production shifted southwest towards the upper reaches of the Yellow River, the main water source for agricultural irrigation in North China. Analysis of absolute and relative growth of apple output reveals that the Loess Plateau, characterised by fragile habitat and low land productivity, has gradually become a major contributor to apple production. Despite annual increases in apple output, apple production system has become more fragile and unstable overtime, especially in the Shaanxi‐Gansu region where apple cultivation is prevalent. With continuous changes in policy, the amount of forest transfer (i.e. the area of other land use types converted to forest) has significantly affected the impact of standardised precipitation evapotranspiration index on apple production increases in China. Thus, to prevent the degradation of new forests, a differentiated management and protection system should be implemented for apple planting sub‐regions. This should include altering subsidy policies on apple production, enhancing soil erosion control in the Loess Plateau and strengthening ecological management of forests and grassland. China's apple output has increased continuously for 42 years with significant spatial differences. Using spatial visualization technology, this study explores the spatial changes and potential impacts of China's apple production in 31 provinces from the perspective of adaptability.