Net-zero deep decarbonization pathways in Latin America: Challenges and opportunities

This synthesis paper presents the objectives, approach and cross-cutting results of the Latin American Deep Decarbonization Pathways project (DDP-LAC). It synthesizes and compares detailed national and sectoral deep decarbonization pathways (DDPs) to 2050 compatible with the Paris Agreement objectives and domestic development priorities in Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico and Peru. The first five countries analysed in detail the energy system and agriculture, forestry and land use (AFOLU) at a high level, while Peru focussed on a detailed analysis of AFOLU given its predominance in its GHG emissions. While economy-wide results were produced, this paper focuses on the electricity, passenger transport, and AFOLU results because of their current emissions, potential to grow, and identification of successful strategies for decarbonization (e.g. switching to clean electricity and other net-zero emissions fuels across the economy; urban planning, mode shifting, and electrification in passenger transport; and intensive sustainable agriculture, assignment of land use rights and their enforcement and afforestation in AFOLU). It also highlights where significant emissions remain in 2050, notably in industry, AFOLU, freight, and oil and gas production, all areas for future research. It derives insights for the design of domestic policy packages and identifies priorities for international cooperation. This analysis provides critical information for Long-Term Strategies, Nationally Determined Contributions and Global Stocktaking in the context of the Paris Agreement. •The Latin American Deep Decarbonization Pathways project (DDP-LAC) included teams from Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Mexico & Peru.•DDP-LAC’s purpose was to create energy & AFOLU modelling capability, net-zero DDP scenarios, a community, and initiate stakeholder engagement.•Electricity generation, personal transport, and AFOLU were identified as key areas given current emissions and potential growth.•DDPs were established for the energy system for Argentina, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, and Mexico, with initial explorations of AFOLU.•A more in-depth AFOLU DDP was established for Peru.•Mitigation pathways were identified for personal transport and electricity generation.•Services, buildings, households, and some industry were largely decarbonized through electrification.•There were significant remaining emissions in AFOLU, freight, industry, oil and gas production and waste, k