Delineation of the Development Boundary of the Central District of Zhengzhou, China

An urban development boundary is an effective means to guide urban development and restrain unplanned expansion of urban space. Scientifically-based delineation and control of the boundary can help with sustainable use of land resources and better spatial planning. This study took land use data from 2000, 2010, and 2020 for the central urban area of Zhengzhou and predicted the land use pattern in 2035. We used auto-logistic selection of driving factors, future land use simulation, and system dynamics models to delineate the development boundary of the central urban area. We complemented and optimized the boundary using agricultural and ecological perspectives. The results indicated the following: (1) The ROC values of land driving factors were greater than 0.75 in the regression test, and the Kappa and OA were greater than 0.92 in the accuracy test of land simulation results. (2) The boundary range initially delineated based on morphology was 2319 km2. There was a clear overall development trend of the central urban area to the east and southeast, which included the historical urban area of Zhengzhou and the new government planning area. (3) The optimized boundary of the central district area was 2209 km2, the ecological land control area was 136 km2, and the basic farmland protection area was 54 km2. The Yellow River, the airport, and the western, southern, and eastern areas were already formed. The study concluded that the delineated boundary was in line with the scientific concepts of ‘rigid’ and ‘flexible’ factors, which have positive effects on the protection of arable land resources and ecological land, as well as meeting the needs of urban development. The level of sustainable development of the region was effectively improved.